Retrospective Comparison of Three Predictive Methods in Assessing Severity of Community Acquired Pneumonia in Elderly at Dr. Moewardi Hospital Surakarta

· Lung Infection

Eddy Surjanto, Yusup Subagio Sutanto, Reviono, Harsini, Dwi Indrayati

Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading infection in cause of death in elderly. The study was to compare
the ability of three validated prediction methods for CAP to predict mortality in elderly: the 20 variable Pneumonia Severity Index
(PSI), the 6-point CURB-65 scale and the simpler CRB-65.

Methods: A retrospective study of 84 consecutive inpatients with CAP was performed in Dr. Moewardi hospital between January
2010 – October 2011. The patients were classified into three risk groups (low, intermediate, high) according to PSI, CURB-65 and
CRB-65. The ability of the three rules to predict hospital mortality was compared.

Results: The overall mortality and ICU admission rates were 26.2% and 27.4%. PSI, CURB-65 and CRB-65 performed similarly, the
areas under ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve were 0.842 (0.753-0.930), 0.958 (0.908-1.008) and 0.959 (0.906-1.013).

Conclusion: All three predictive rules have a similar performance in predicting the severity of CAPin elderly. CURB-65 and CRB-65
are more applicable than PSI. (J Respir Indo. 2013; 33:34-9)

Keywords: Predictive rule, severity CAP, elderly.

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